ZIMBABWE’S POLITICAL TURMOIL: WILL MNANGAGWA FACE A COUP?

In less than three years, Mali experienced two military coups. While Mnangagwa and Mugabe are not from Mali, they share a common factor: military coups. The connection is the strong presence of power in both countries. This power is very influential and leads to a political system that combines a tyrannical party with the state, as seen with Zimbabwe’s Zanu PF. This article looks at the likely downfall of Mnangagwa, similar to his predecessor, Mugabe.

Mali and Zimbabwe both have tyrannical parties. In Zimbabwe, Zanu PF is controlled by the second secretary who took power from the first secretary. This person allegedly played a big role in the deaths of potential leaders. This shows that Zanu PF is not only tyrannical but also very personalized. This personalization creates factionalism within the party, which can lead to a military coup. Mugabe was forced to leave power in a dishonorable way after centralizing power for decades and trying to set up his young wife as his successor.

The goal of a one-party state is to pick a new leader from the old leader’s family, ensuring no accountability and transparency. This is possible if the leader’s wife or son replaces them. They step down, and their family member takes over, having been appointed as vice president. Zanu PF, being loyal, will approve this undemocratic move, just as they supported Mugabe’s candidacy in the 2018 elections.

How does this lead to a coup for Mnangagwa? When you have military leaders who left their positions for power and a president who wants to stay in power beyond 2030, a coup is very likely. Leaders like Chiwenga and Valerio Sibanda feel they deserve to be presidents due to their contributions during the liberation struggle. These leaders not only want the presidency but also want to protect their wealth and avoid prosecution for human rights abuses, such as beatings, rapes, and killings. These actions were meant to keep Zanu PF in power so they could also have a chance at the presidency. When Mnangagwa personalizes the party and denies these leaders their chance, a military coup becomes imminent. Like Mugabe, Mnangagwa will be forced to leave power.

Another reason for a likely coup is Mnangagwa’s move to extend Malaba’s tenure in office, which is unconstitutional. This shows that Mnangagwa has deeply entrenched himself in power. Mugabe did the same. Public uprisings against Zanu PF’s self-enrichment and corruption, like the Draxgate scandal where the first family allegedly stole US$500 million, will also lead to a military coup. Similar uprisings happened during the Arab Spring and the removal of Bashir in Sudan. Zanu PF fears these uprisings because they threaten the military’s interests. The military has committed many human rights violations, such as during the Gukurahundi massacre, the violence in the Chiadzwa diamond fields, and electoral violence. These actions were driven by the desire to keep Zanu PF in power.

The military fears losing their wealth and facing prosecution for these violations. If a people’s choice party takes over, it will prioritize the welfare of the people and bring transparency. The stolen wealth, like Chiwenga’s two-million-dollar mansion or money in Swiss and Cayman Island bank accounts, will be returned to the people. The military cannot afford to face justice for their crimes. To avoid this, they will remove Mnangagwa from power. This move is a way to avoid accountability and maintain their plundered wealth. The people of Zimbabwe have learned from the military’s previous deception. They know that the military will only protect their interests and not those of the people.