ZANU PF WILL NOT INTERVENE IN MOZAMBIQUE: NO GAIN, NO ACTION
In Mozambique, ZANU PF cannot extract diamonds or other easily accessible minerals as they did in Congo. This makes it wrong to think that ZANU PF is under pressure to send troops with no experience in counterinsurgency to intervene in Mozambique. ZANU PF acts only in its own interests, aiming for self-enrichment. This explains why ZANU PF quickly intervened in Congo but now ignores Mozambique. Congo’s instability did not threaten Zimbabwe, but Mozambique’s state failure and the resulting humanitarian crisis pose a real threat to Zimbabwe’s national security. However, ZANU PF’s lack of political will to intervene militarily in Mozambique is due to its inability to exploit Mozambique’s resources for its own gain.
The idea that ZANU PF is under pressure to deploy troops to Mozambique is based on the belief that ZANU PF values the economy highly. This is misleading. ZANU PF does not benefit from a fully functional economy. A strong economy with an innovative private sector would create a middle class that is politically aware and independent of ZANU PF’s control. This would undermine ZANU PF’s power, which relies on food aid and agricultural schemes used to buy votes and discourage opposition. Therefore, ZANU PF has no need for a functional economy, as it hinders their schemes to retain power and plunder wealth.
When ZANU PF intervened in Mozambique in the past to protect the Beira corridor, the reason was to maintain Mozambique’s sovereignty and protect Zimbabwe’s economy. The current terrorism threat in Mozambique is far greater than the past menace, yet ZANU PF now ignores the need to maintain Mozambique’s sovereignty. This selective amnesia shows that ZANU PF is not under pressure to deploy troops for a military intervention.
ZANU PF is known for making excuses. It has blamed sanctions and other factors for its failures. Now, ZANU PF uses the excuse that it cannot intervene militarily alone in Mozambique. ZANU PF’s neglect of Mozambique’s sovereignty and security highlights its unwillingness to act without the support of SADC. Yet, ZANU PF had previously intervened in Congo without SADC’s approval. This shows ZANU PF’s disregard for international organization rules. The truth is that ZANU PF is clueless about generating solutions and is unwilling to demonstrate its military capacity against an equal force.
The pressure on ZANU PF comes from the poor performance of Zimbabwe’s economy, plagued by inflation, budget deficits, and corruption. Without a strong economy, ZANU PF cannot afford military endeavors without further damaging the economy. Deploying troops would be the last straw, leading to the loss of power and prosecution for human rights abuses.
When ZANU PF intervened in Mozambique before, it was because Mozambique was not a playing field. Now, Mozambique faces terrorism, but ZANU PF lacks the political will to intervene. The consequences of instability in Mozambique, such as compromised national security for both Mozambique and Zimbabwe, remain unchanged. What has changed are the players and their strategies, driven by the motivation of oil and gas. ZANU PF lacks the necessary military expertise to engage successfully in the conflict.
In conclusion, ZANU PF has no interest in intervening in Mozambique because it cannot plunder resources like oil and gas. Without the ability to exploit these resources, ZANU PF sees no reason to intervene. This lack of interest means that ZANU PF will not act to prevent national security threats, even if they could spill over into Zimbabwe, destabilizing the region further.
